-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- TIME magazine 's cover story , which hit the newsstand Thursday , argues that Latino voters will cast the deciding vote in the upcoming election .

After watching the Republican candidates lock the kryptonite that is the immigration issue around their necks during the Arizona debate , my bet is that President Barack Obama could win another term -- even if he loses key swing states such as Florida , Iowa , New Hampshire , Ohio , Pennsylvania , Virginia and Wisconsin -- but he must make sure he accomplishes one thing first : Connect with Latinos .

Republicans have not connected with Hispanics ; the candidates ' approaches to immigration are not compelling and lack substance , from talk of double 30-foot electrified fences to anchor babies and self-deportation . In fact , it could very well be that the 20 Arizona Latino voters on the cover of TIME and half a million more will turn out to vote in Arizona and flip the state to Obama .

Obama comes into the election with 196 electoral votes from safe Democratic states . If he takes Arizona and if Hispanic voters help him flip Missouri , which McCain won by fewer than 4,000 votes , and help him retain Colorado , Indiana , Michigan , Nevada , New Mexico and North Carolina , then Obama wins with 279 electoral votes , nine more than the 270 needed . If he can retain Ohio , Pennsylvania , Virginia or Wisconsin , also populated with many Latino swing voters , then he could win in a landslide .

It is clear , then , that connecting with Latino voters could very well be a tipping point for the president ; the question is how to make that connection .

In his book `` The Political Brain : The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation , '' Drew Westen convincingly argues that `` people vote for the candidate who elicits the right feelings , not the candidate who presents the best arguments . ''

Beyond the shared concern for economic growth , jobs , education and health care , Latinos are focused on immigration because the majority of the undocumented workers living here are from Latin America . This is an issue that resonates at a deeply emotional level with Latinos , whether they are descendants of Spanish colonists or a recently arrived Mexican sleeping on a cousin 's couch .

Thus to really , deeply connect with Hispanic voters , any candidate needs to address the immigration issue by supporting comprehensive immigration reform and the Dream Act , which would provide a path to citizenship for those who earn a college degree or serve two years in the military .

This is a vital first step to earning the trust of Hispanic voters , who understand that the country needs strong border security but also know that we need a fair way to deal with the nearly 10 million economic refugees who are working in this country and contributing to our society . It 's a matter of respect .

So how does Obama -- who has a dubious record himself on immigration -- win the Latino vote ?

First he wins the ground war in the battleground states , which is door-to-door combat .

Next he outspends Republicans in Spanish-language media , just like he did John McCain in 2008 , by five to one . It 's no coincidence that on Tuesday , Obama did an interview with L.A.-based `` Piolin , '' the most influential Spanish-language radio personality in the country . The president reassured Latinos that he is strongly committed to passing comprehensive immigration reform and lambasted the Republican Party for its extreme views and intransigence on the issue .

Hispanics want to feel they are voting for an authentic leader . Hispanics do n't have to agree with every position Obama takes , but they must believe in and identify with his worldview .

He needs to explain that the Democratic Party is a welcoming place for Hispanics , that his world view of America is that of a caring , responsible , family and that his political ideals are based on empathy and fairness . Getting these ideas across to Latinos is vital to securing their votes .

Once Obama has established a deep emotional connection with Latinos , he can connect directly to the heart of Latino voters with three simple messages :

1 . The economy and jobs .

Under Obama 's leadership , an economy that was losing 500,000 jobs a month in the final months of 2008 is now gaining more than 200,000 jobs per month . His policies are working ; they just need more time .

2 . Health care .

Despite unanimous opposition from Republicans , Obama fulfilled his promise of making health care available to all Americans . Now 32 million more Americans -- including Hispanics -- will be able to afford insurance for the first time .

3 . Education .

The president doubled the government 's investment in scholarships and financial aid , making college more affordable to millions of Americans . Now students from working-class Hispanic families can go to college and get good jobs .

On the contrary , Republicans may blow hard about their understanding and affection for Hispanics , munching on burritos in the barrio on the campaign trail , but the evidence of authenticity of leadership and the strong record crucial to the Latino vote are just not there .

The refusal of all the GOP candidates to really look at immigration and offer a plan -- despite the glad-handing and tepid avowals of commitment -- makes it clear that the GOP just does n't have the deep connection with Latinos necessary to pull off a win in November .

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Charles Garcia .

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Charles Garcia : Republicans ' stance on immigration gives Obama opportunity

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He says the president needs to establish an emotional connection with Latinos

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Obama can point to health care , improving economy , greater scholarship money , he says

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Garcia : If Latinos go strongly for Obama , he could win in a landslide